Thursday, July 5, 2012

How Good are we at Predicting MLB Win Totals? Not very.

Before the season, the three of us predicted if all 30 MLB teams would go over or under their Vegas line. It's an easy way to predict what we think will happen to each team. Now that each team has reached 81 games, we wanted to let our readers hold us accountable for our failures and triumphs. Blogging, after all, is all about accountability, alright?

The results weren't pretty. Considering that we had a 50% chance of getting each one right, you'd think that experts like us would be 80-90% right? Right? Turns out a coin would do a better job than Jon and I. Steve is barely above .500, sort of like his tied for last place Red Sox. The chart below shows our predictions, the pace of each team, and the results thus far. One point for each correct pick.

Predictions Results
Sean Steve Jon MidSeason Pace     Sean    Steve    Jon
Braves 87 O O O 84 U 0 0 0
Marlins 84.5 U O U 78 U 1 0 1
Nats 84.5 U U U 94 O 0 0 0
Mets 70.5 O U U 88 O 1 0 0
Phillies 93.5 O O O 72 U 0 0 0
Dodgers 81 P O U 90 O 0 1 0
Padres 73.5 U U U 64 U 1 1 1
Giants 87.5 O O U 90 O 1 1 0
Rocks 80.5 O U O 62 U 0 1 0
Dbacks 86 U O P 78 U 1 0 0
Orioles 69.5 U O U 88 O 0 1 0
Rays 87 O O U 85 U 0 0 1
Bjays 80 U O U 83 O 0 1 0
Yanks 93.5 O O O 98 O 1 1 1
R. Sox 89.5 O O O 83 U 0 0 0
Mariners 72 U O U 68 U 1 0 1
Angels 92.5 O O O 90 U 0 0 0
A's 71 O O O 80 O 1 1 1
Rangers O O O 99 O 1 1 1
Royals 80.5 U U O 73 U 1 1 0
Twins 73 P O U 70 U 0 0 1
Indians 78.5 O O O 84 O 1 1 1
Tigers 92.5 O O U 79 U 0 0 1
W. Sox 74 U U O 88 O 0 0 1
Cubs 74.5 U U U 62 U 1 1 1
Astros 64 O U U 63 U 0 1 1
Brews 83.5 O O O 76 U 0 0 0
Cards  83 U O O 85 O 0 1 1
Pirates 73 U O U 90 O 0 1 0
Reds 86.5 O O O 88 O 1 1 1




Obviously, we are all dumb as hell. The most embarrassing pick has to be the Phillies. We bet on an injured and aging team to stay healthy in a much improved division. I'd say that us all missing the Nationals was also bad, but that means I'd have to give them credit.

On the positive side in the NL, we all got the Reds, Padres, and Cubs right! In the AL, things were similarly bad as we all predicted the Red Sox to win at least 90 games. None of us are proud of ourselves, but we are swallowing our pride and being accountable to the fans.

Best Pick:
Jon: Jon had the balls to predict the Tigers would win less than 92.5 games. He said 91. The White Sox prediction was also pretty good. He predicted 76.

Steve: The over on the Dodgers looks great so far. But with Kemp and Ethier hurt, their pitching slowing down, and the Diamondbacks improving their hitting, Jon and I might just get the last laugh. Mwhaha. The Orioles going over 69.5 wins because "Fuck you Robert Andino" looks pretty genius.

Sean: The Mets over 70.5 was a decent pick. But I also bet on the Mets. So either way I lose.

Worst Pick:
Jon: Royals over 80.5. Why????? Oh yay, we have a couple of okay prospects let's have every sabermetician in the world love us. When your ace is Bruce Chen you aren't going to have a winning season.

Steve: Steve went 0 for the NL East. That's pretty fucking awful. Then again, he did do better than a coin, so he's the most "expert" of all of us.

Sean:  The Cards under 83 was a bad pick at the time and it still is. I can't help myself, I just hate them. They won a fucking World Series when they shouldn't have even made the playoffs.

Silver Lining: Interleague play bumps up AL teams, but once they start to play each other, middling contenders like the Blue Jays, Orioles, and A's will all move down a bit. The opposite is true for the NL. Also, I can see the Astros, Twins, Braves, DBacks, and Angels all going the other way than their mid-season mark.

Sure, it's true we aren't smart and our expert analysis has proven to be worse than a coin flip. Sure, Steve is going to be obnoxiously happy about being in first. Doesn't matter. As I once was told in a Batman film, "the light is darkest before the dawn." See you after 162.

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